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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.27 10:33:00 -
[1]
You probably heard the rumor, or noticed something really weird on the markets already. If not, tl;dr version : you can buy some really cheap POS modules and reprocess them into a metric truckload of "P4" (end-tier) PI products ; you can then either undercut the poor PIons (or was that Planeteers?) or build other POS structures and sell below NPC price
So... brainstorming session : * do you think CCP is likely to intervene in some way ? * if yes, do you think it will punish people that did it, or will it just roll over and let things stand as they are, merely plugging up the hole for future profiteering ? * if no, do you think it might be our evil trader obligation (the "we hate the working class, they're so silly, but we also love them, work my ants, work") to start a nice little pre-emptive PI failure cascade ? * just how fraked-up do you think PI will be because of this, ISK-wise, and for how long ? * better yet, how much ISK are you in for already?

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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.27 11:09:00 -
[2]
I was tempted to wade into it, but then again... I'm reasonably well-off already ISK-wise with no particular rush to get much more, I happen to agree it does feel too much like an exploit to me, the mass of people that do it will probably mean there won't be that much of a profit to be had (still enough for a lot of people)... and last but not least I'd actually have to :effort: it all (i.e. haul stuff ; or better said, go on location to reprocess then make the hauling contracts). I hope CCP does something before June 8... however, chances are pretty slim IMO.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.27 11:29:00 -
[3]
Originally by: Merouk Baas Well, the original Akita T thread in General was fun, saw your reaction live as it happened and you edited and re-edited you OP. Thanks for that entertainment .
I tried to maintain most of that in the "updates" section, but I bet it was much more fun live with title changes too 
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.27 13:28:00 -
[4]
Edited by: Akita T on 27/05/2010 13:29:44
Copypasta from the other thread :
Well, let's see... assuming all end-tier products would roughly cost the same (more on that later), there's this one structure where you get "P4" (PI tier 4, end-tier) at roughly 300k a piece, and there's some other structure where you get other variations of P4 at roughly 500k a piece, several others vary too... but if you do it with a control tower, you end up with one costing nearly 2 mil a piece. And those might not even be the most extreme sides of the equation. Still, the lowball so far (300k-ish) is worth remembering.
Now, back to why P4 products would probably end up costing more or less the same - it's because 5 of 8 of the P4s are built from the same number of sub-components (3x 6xP3), and there is a small variation with the other 3 of 8 (2x 6xP3 + 40xP2), but that ends up being around 70% of the price of the other 5 (or thereabouts) overall resource-wise. The main deciding factor in price will be how much players value their time restarting extractors, hauling stuff between planets (you CAN NOT build a P4 with resources of a single planet - you can barely build a few of the P3s with the resources of a single planet, the rest of P3s require at least two planet types - it requires a combination of multiple planets to get that rolling).
Now, if I remember correctly, at least for those involved in P4 production, it goes like this: 3000x raw -> 20x P1 (every 30m in basic center) ; 2x 40x P1 -> 5x P2 (every 1h in advanced center) ; 2x 10x P2 -> 3x P3 (every 1h in advanced center) ; 3x 6x P3 -> 1x P4 (every 1h in high-tech center). Overall, to make P4s in continuous fire, you need the output of 6 advanced centers making P3s, each needing the output of 4 advanced centers making P2s (24 here plus 6 before makes 30), each of which needs the output of 2 basic centers (half cycle time, yay ; so 48 basic centers). Each basic center needs 6000 units of materials per hour (3000 every half-hour), and that's more than a typical extractor on a very good planet can provide. In fact, you can pretty much assume on average 2 or even 3 extractors per basic center (so 96-144 extractors total)... heck, let's make that a nice and round 120 extractors on average. So... hmmm... 1x P4 = 120 extractors (96000 MW, 24000 tf) + 48 basic factories (9600 MW, 38400 tf) + 30 advanced factories (21000 MW, 15000 tf) + 1 high-tech center (400 MW, 1100 tf)... plus all the other necessary amenities, like plenty of spaceports (the very least 6, probably much more) and all necessary links... umm, yeah, that's pretty much at the very upper limit of what a completely maxed-out character working the optimal set of decent-density-of-materials planets can pull off, by probably working for well over one hour each day (just restarting the extractors alone should take well over half an hour, probably closer to one full hour), probably even over two hours total if you also take into account the hauling to and from planets and so on and so forth. So, at best, almost two hours of grueling work each day, AND all the import/export taxes, you're left with at most 24 (probably just 23) P4 items to show for... so, let's be generous and say 15x P4 per worked hour.
I don't know about you, but I'd certainly NOT bother parting with my P4 for under 1 mil the very least (15 mil/hour), probably closer or over 2 mil a piece (30 mil/hour)... and even then it would feel like a rip-off. However, you can stockpile (some of) them at BARELY 300k a piece NOW.

TL;DR - soon after PI hits, you could be looking at anywhere from 250% to 500% profit from your shenenigans, if you're even a bit lucky... probably much more if you wait enough.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.27 13:53:00 -
[5]
Originally by: Chaos Incarnate akita, shut up already, you're ruining my potential future margins 
Pirates collect the tears of people they shoot at and pop... I collect the tears of countless random budding PIndustrialists I never will meet 
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.27 17:52:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Akita T Well, let's see... assuming all end-tier products would roughly cost the same (more on that later), there's this one structure where you get "P4" (PI tier 4, end-tier) at roughly 300k a piece, and there's some other structure where you get other variations of P4 at roughly 500k a piece, several others vary too... but if you do it with a control tower, you end up with one costing nearly 2 mil a piece. And those might not even be the most extreme sides of the equation. Still, the lowball so far (300k-ish) is worth remembering.
Oh, yeah, apparently, there's yet another one, which yields'em at around 180k a piece 
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.27 22:35:00 -
[7]
Originally by: Professor Leech This is a way of ccp seeding the market so that PI gets a soft start. As compared to people screaming that there aren't any pos, pos guns on the market, fuel or other issues. It also has the effect of removing a lot of isk from the game at the same time.
We are not talking about the existence of NPC sell orders for stuff, but about the IMBALANCES in reprocessing yields of various POS structures. It's not just as if they kept NPC sell orders up a while longer, it's as if they radically LOWERED the NPC sell order value. So, no, that's not a soft start for PI, it's the kick in the balls before even having any balls in the first place, ensuring that no balls grow any time soon.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.27 22:55:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Grozen Rapid equipment assembly array
Cyno gen beacon and cyno jammer are also looking pretty decent. One is better than REAA, the other is worse than REEA, but they're in the same rough ballpark, and you can get a nice spread of P4s by mixing and matching. There might be more, not just those three 
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.27 23:09:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Professor Leech You seem rather angry about this.
Another expansion basically wasted from a profitability-for-the-general-public-as-opposed-to-just-people-like-me before it even started ? You bet I'm angry!
Quote: You stated that you make most of your profits around patch time, are you sure that you don't have a vested interest here?
Yeah, if CCP doesn't fix it soon, or at least acknowledges it as a problem that needs fixing, I fully intend to exploit the **** out of it. I still have time until June 8. And, this time, it would actually involve some marginal effort on my part (which I'm not really keen to make). You know, as opposed to my usual "ready spreadsheets, several hours ; put up orders = 5 minutes, log back next day to modify orders = 5 minutes until done, wait a couple of months, put up orders = 5 minutes, log back next day to modify orders = 5 minutes until done". I'm still holding a tiny sliver of hope that they'll change it, but given CCP's past history, I'm not convinced it even has a half-decent chance of happening.
Quote: On the flip side the "cheap" modules are going to be very expensive after the patch due to their construction requirements.
Except that people would just keep enough of them stockpiled unreprocessed, so they won't go up TOO much in price. Not much more than their components anyway, unless CCP changes their build requirements.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.27 23:33:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Professor Leech I understand completely. However, you did request that PI be delayed and this is the result. :ccp:
This could still have all been prevented by TEMPORARILY removing the ability to reprocess POS stuff as soon as the issue became public knowledge.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.27 23:45:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Professor Leech On the up side; demand for couriers has probably gone up.
WAY up, for sure. I mean, damn, there must be close to 2 billion m^3 of materials that need to be transported, and it's likely to go up much more in the weekend, I wouldn't exclude 10 or even 20 bil m^3 total before Monday.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.27 23:51:00 -
[12]
Originally by: Grozen It has been 2days after deployment and this is like playing with fire.Are ccp that stupid to leave things as they are?and what makes you certain cosmo that they will not do anything besides preventing further abuse?
They seldom revert mistakes AFTER they happen. Yes, it's somewhat risky, but not how you make it sound - worst case scenario is that you get slightly less than what you invested back, but much more likely, far less profit than you expected. Still, a decent chance of 15-20% profit on a multi-billion investment over 3-4 months, with minimal chance of loss... how could you pass this up ?
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.28 00:05:00 -
[13]
Copypasta from the other thread:
Originally by: Bellum Eternus I can see alliances easily dumping half a TRILLION ISK EACH into this if it's allowed to continue, which it will be, because CCP isn't fast enough to fix it. This could well end up being one of the worst CCP f*ck ups in the history of the game. Again, hilarious.
I nominate PIPOCALYPSE-NOW! for the "Worst CCP Screwup EVER" Award  Let's recap : lowering value of most POS/outpost/sov related things almost one order of magnitude PLUS almost one entire expansion rendered pointless.
Any other contenders ? Maybe boot.ini, but that one wasn't nearly half as bad.
Originally by: Blane Xero Chances of this being reverted/calles a sploit/not being touched and destroying PI, in order of chance of happening please? Need to see if its worth jumping into this only to find out 19h later its been plugged and i now have a few assets i don't need.
Not being touched and PI gone up in flames : 55% Reprocess freeze and/or component makeup altering : 25% Being lightly altered so PI gets barely by : 15% (it's quite difficult at this point) Server rollback : 5% (never happened before, doubt it will ever happen)
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.28 00:25:00 -
[14]
Well, if by the weekend it's not fixed, I fully expect the majority of alliances to do their pre-emptive shopping, so, umm, what, 2 to 3 TRILLION ISK sunk into it in one weekend, maybe ? Or, maybe a lot more, since, hell, can you say no to a ~5 bil ISK outpost bargain ?  Bye bye PI P4s, you will not really be missed since nobody really got to know you ! See you in 2 to 3 years 
Well, the good news is that POS fuel will be somewhat profitable eventually, as the current stockpiles get exhausted in maybe half a year or so ? They're "cheap" enough to not trigger a massive purchase spree. Not much to speak of, but still better than nothing.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.28 01:06:00 -
[15]
You got mail !
Bug Report Processed (~7 minutes ago) Thank you for your bugreport - ID:95974 Title: CRITICAL ! Adoption of PI threatened by reprocessable POS structures (contents - tl;dr of the EDG thread) "We are already aware of this problem, and have added your bugreport to the existing issue in our defect tracking system."
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.28 01:18:00 -
[16]
Originally by: Professor Leech That's great news Akita. I look forward to this issue being addressed by 2014.
My thoughts exactly  But hey, a bit more fear never hurt anybody, at least SOME people will think twice before jumping on the bandwagon  _
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.28 09:03:00 -
[17]
Originally by: Chaska Marcos Has anyone thought about the possibility that CCP did this on purpose?
Yes, a lot of people did don their tinfoil hats and spouted this nonsense already. You're not the first to invent the latest conspiracy theory.
Quote: Maybe they would like to make POS's more available for people. Maybe what we'll really see is a price drop on POS equipment.
Maybe you didn't think enough about why that makes no sense, from an "Occam's Razor" point of view.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.28 18:48:00 -
[18]
POPCORN GRAB TIME NOW  _
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.29 18:03:00 -
[19]
Originally by: Shar Tegral
Originally by: Boogie Bobby Congrats to everyone who has made and will make a fortune from this.
Hear, hear. If it wasn't for cheating and other opportunities I would have no competition. Be far too boring otherwise. So here's to you, those who will sell out because they have nothing else of value.
Damn my pesky remaining moral values an ethics, I have to completely get rid of them, they are stunting my wallet growth  Nah, just kidding. I'm more than happy with what I already have, but more importantly, the way I got it. It's more exciting to play with a bit of a moral handicap 
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.29 18:17:00 -
[20]
Edited by: Akita T on 29/05/2010 18:26:06
Well, you could trust me when I tell you I didn't buy/reprocess any POS mods, ...or I could give you my full API key to check I am telling the truth (just ask for it and promise you won't divulge anything else except to confirm/deny my claims in here, then I'm sending it ASAP), ...but you could still choose to believe I took advantage with an alt that had a lot of ISK stashed away somehow (although you probably could tell there can't be any with the data you'll get) ...or that I loaned a lot of ISK with an alt from somebody else or something like that. So there's no way to conclusively prove I didn't make any ISK from it. I can try to convince you though, if you really cared to try to know.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.29 18:44:00 -
[21]
Well, I was hoping you'd care enough to want to find out, so you could be at least reasonably convinced I'm telling the truth, but eh... what can I do if you don't even want to ? It's kind of silly of me to want to have the trust/approval of people I probably never will meet, sure, but on some level I dislike this particular situation anyway.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.29 19:02:00 -
[22]
It sucks that it "eats up" CR/LFs from the evemails.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.06.02 11:41:00 -
[23]
Originally by: Qoi On an unrelated sidenote, according to the EVE API, the completion status ID 3 means "GM aborted".
It's probably true ! motherofgod.jpg
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.06.02 12:44:00 -
[24]
Apparently, nope :
Originally by: Chaos Incarnate jobs were not cancelled, mine are all still cooking.

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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.06.02 13:37:00 -
[25]
Originally by: DarkArtz Hey they raised the NPC price of towers
Not really. What you see is the reset back to baseprice (i.e. 400m/200m/100m for large/med/small) which happens occasionally after some patches. NPC sell order prices naturally drift towards 90% of baseprice (i.e. 360/180/90) after a short while.
Quote: Interesting price adjustments on the mods.
Care to elaborate which ones you call "interesting", and what the price difference is (before/after) ? From what I can see, the only differences so far seem to be the exact same thing you see on towers, although I admit, I haven't checked each and every one of them (in other words, I only checked very few).
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